Thursday, August 04, 2011

Has the post 2008 crisis economy peaked?

It doesn't seem really good as to what we are heading towards - stagnation in the western world which is influenced by a debt crisis in Europe and a deficit driven craze in the US. The Asian region still seems to be okay, with inflation being the main concern. Asian countries still have some levers to keep the domestic economy propelled by adjusting the interest rate downwards. And we have China which still wants to build excess stuff in almost all sectors which will keep demand going for a while.But not sure for how long Asian tigers can sustain with the help from the Western demand as most of them rely on exports.

The West seems to have lost the recovery race. And the banks are taking note of this by shedding jobs in Europe and NA. Oil is rolling back towards $90/bbl, leading indicators are slumping again, gold's hitting a record daily and interest rates on European bonds are on a massive rise. Or

This is all just a massive market scam to force US to go for a QE3 as most of the instruments above (stocks, bonds, oil, gold etc) are controlled by financial institutions and having milked $1.5 trillion out in profits from the treasury and setting record profits in 2009 and 2010 (not to forget massive bonus payouts), the profitability is on a decline.

The only neutral indicator "Unemployment" rate which the banks do not contribute much to hasn't improved that much.

Now we shall hear requirement of stimulus drumming up from the banks, Fed comes out with statement, followed by treasury and then Mr. Obama will sign for an another stimulus. But wait, he cant do it so directly this time as the Republicans will be vying for his blood. So where do we end-up ??

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