Thursday, January 06, 2005

The adda

The adda: "The weather in Elbonia is either sunny or rainy. If it is sunny on a given day, there is a probability of 1/5 that it will be sunny the next day. If it is rainy on a given day, there is a probability of 3/5 that it will be rainy the next day. What is the probability that it will rain thirty days from today given that today is sunny?"

The probability that it is sunny seems to converge to 1/3.

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